Leading up to the release of Halo: Reach on September 14th, Microsoft executives began talking up the launch of the title saying that not is Halo the biggest game series of all time, but that the fifth entry to this legendary franchise would outsell Activision’s forthcoming blockbuster game, Call of Duty: Black Ops.

Following the release of Halo: Reach, Microsoft released official day one sales figures for the game, announcing during Tokyo Game Show 2010 that it had managed to generate $200 million in sales during its first 24 hours of availability - highly impressive, especially considering the game only released on one platform, and according to Microsoft, Halo: Reach represents the most successful launch of an entertainment product this year.

What’s more, Halo: Reach broke the record for the most simultaneous Xbox LIVE users on day one. Microsoft and Bungie must be smiling.

Here Comes a New Challenger

With the release of Halo: Reach, one of the aims for Microsoft and Bungie surely would have been to ‘go out’ with a bang, and make an indelible mark on the industry to show how powerful a brand Halo has become. What better way to do that than with boasting rights, and to be able to claim ‘the most’ everything? The most sales this year, the most players, the most features.

But, with Activision and Treyarch’s upcoming Call of Duty: Black Ops, will Halo: Reach be able to claim these titles for much longer? Reach may not have outsold 2009’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (and so Microsoft failed to reclaim the ‘highest grossing entertainment product’ title), but that game may still have a shot at outpacing Black Ops in terms of day one sales come November 9th.

There’s a lot at stake here, beyond bragging rights. With $200 million in sales on day one, and roughly 3 million units sold, has Halo: Reach done enough to outpace the launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops?

Let’s see what El33tonline’s Editor-in-Chief, Lisa, has to say about the situation:

“It’s commendable that Microsoft believes Halo: Reach will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops and high time someone stood up to the series that has become a behemoth over the years. However, despite me applauding their courage, let’s talk frankly because I just don’t think they can do it. Even though I hope they could, simply to put an end to the cockiness that has grown to surround the Call of Duty franchise over the years.

“The first, and most important, reason I believe Microsoft won’t do it is simply because Black Ops is multi-platform and Reach is not. The second reason is that I believe the Call of Duty series has built more of a following over the years than Halo has. Without wanting to throw a stone into a hornet’s nest, I’m not sure that it’s logistically possible to outsell a Call of Duty game that’s available on three platforms when the contender is only available on one.

“And then we must consider that while Microsoft has already spent its marketing budget on the game, apparently the biggest for the company yet, and mostly wrapped up their advertising campaign, Activision is just getting started and has another good couple of weeks to get people excited about their title. It can’t hurt knowing Microsoft’s Reach numbers either – now they’re going into the ring even more prepared.”

The multiplatform argument is a good one, and as Lisa notes, Call of Duty’s fanbase has grown rapidly over the years, with a major catalyst being the release of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare in 2007. Surely that fanbase will only continue to grow with the release of Black Ops?

What is Black Ops, and who will buy it?

If this year’s Call of Duty release was Modern Warfare 3, there would be no question that Activision’s game would smash sales records. In the world of videogames (and entertainment and… everything else), brand recognition plays a major part in a consumer’s purchasing decision. The words ‘Call of Duty’ by themselves may well be enough on their own to sell any videogame, but that title followed up by ‘Modern Warfare,’ in my mind, now represents a brand of great value to millions of gamers around the world.

But Black Ops? What does that mean to gamers? Is the ‘Call of Duty’ brand enough to carry the unfamiliar title? Will Activision’s (sure-to-be) enormous advertising campaign for the game be enough to spread the word that a new Call of Duty game is on the way? Remember that gamers who bother to read up and keep up with daily videogame coverage don’t make up the average consumer base. It’s the millions of gamers (and parents of younger gamers) who walk into retail stores without prior knowledge of a title’s release that account for the majority of any given game’s overall sales.

You reading this are in the minority of gamers who know what Black Ops is, and may or may not have already formed an opinion on the game, and whether or not you’re going to buy it. The debacle at Infinity Ward, and the poor handling of the removal of that studio’s founders by Activision may factor into that decision. Perhaps Activision CEO Bobby Kotick’s bizarre and offhanded comments factor into your decision. Perhaps Activision’s current ‘evil’ status factors into your decision of whether or not to buy Call of Duty: Black Ops.

But you’re in the minority. The millions of gamers who are affected by the advertising campaign for Black Ops and who recognise ‘Call of Duty’ don’t know about these things and thus won’t factor them into their purchase decision. As the minority, however, the gamers with the knowledge, you act as the tastemaker – the trendsetter. If hundreds of thousands of trendsetters don’t buy a game, sales can be affected.

And with growing unrest aimed at Activision over past practices, sales could be affected in this way.

The Numbers Game

Last year, on day one, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 sold 4.7 million units across three platforms, with sales of $310 million. These are facts. The day one sales figures for Halo: Reach are then all the more impressive, given the fact that the game only released on one platform.

With less powerful brand recognition, and the possibility of waning sales due to hardcore trendsetters snubbing the title at launch, can Call of Duty: Black Ops hope to outsell Halo: Reach on day one? Or will it be a cakewalk for Activision’s title thanks to its multiplatform release and a massive advertising campaign?

What do you think? Leave your comments below: